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1. In 2022, the foreign trade industry is too difficult!
In 2022, everyone is witnessing history! "I have worked for decades and experienced SARS in 2003. I have never seen such a severe situation this year. It is no exaggeration to say despair!" Boss Luo manages a garment factory in Shenzhen. In previous years, this was the peak season. Many overseas customers would come to the store in advance to book the new models of that year, but the COVID-19 has changed everything.
Since February, the factory has not received a new order, the largest American customer has cut off all the original orders, and other overseas customers have not followed. In fact, the net profit of garment factories is very low, only between 5-20%. Many manufacturers have prepared enough raw materials for production. Once the order is cancelled, the loss of payment for goods is likely to make the factory face huge financial pressure.
At that time, the "epicenter" of the epidemic was still in China. It was not easy to wait until the domestic epidemic gradually stabilized, but the small-scale epidemic abroad showed a prairie fire. The fire became more and more prosperous, gradually showing an uncontrollable situation. The epidemic has swept the world, affecting not only people's outdoor travel and other activities, but also people's consumption mentality.
For home isolation, shutdown, salary reduction and layoffs, everyone holds tight his purse and is cautious when spending a dollar. When consumption upgrading suddenly reverses to consumption degradation, people's demand for all kinds of products will naturally decrease. The bosses of foreign trade enterprises never expected that 2022 would be such a bleak scene. When the domestic work was stopped, they were afraid that the orders could not be delivered and were eager to resume work. Now the work has been fully resumed and no one wants the products.
There is a saying circulating on the Internet, "after the first half of the domestic game, the foreign relay in the second half, the foreign trade people filled the audience." Until now, the efficiency of cross-border transportation is still affected. You know, the scale of material transportation in the belly compartment of passenger aircraft accounts for almost half of the scale of cross-border logistics transportation. At present, although international flights have been gradually restored, they dare not open on a large scale, and the scale of transportation in the belly compartment of passenger aircraft is still not as good as before.
It is also doing business with foreigners. Traditional foreign trade enterprises have been seriously damaged, and cross-border e-commerce sellers have risen and fallen because of different business categories. An Amazon seller said: "in the spring of last year, because Americans had to take care of their small gardens, orders for gardening tools such as water pipes and sprinklers would increase greatly. This year, such orders fell by about 40% year-on-year."
Indoor sports equipment and epidemic prevention products are quite the opposite, even ice and fire. According to the data provided by tmall global, in March this year, the sales of indoor sports equipment suitable for families increased by 230% year-on-year, including table tennis grid, table football table, etc. Orders for some products related to epidemic prevention, such as disposable gloves, medical surgical masks and thermometers, increased significantly.
Under the influence of the epidemic, significant changes have taken place in American consumption behavior. According to US media estimates, nearly 25000 offline stores in the United States may close this year, and a large number of demand will be transferred to online. Amazon's sales in the second quarter of 2022 increased by 40% year-on-year. A survey by yotpo, an e-commerce marketing platform, showed that 43.2% of respondents said they would make more online shopping due to the epidemic. Among them, "millennials" needless to say, more than half said they would continue to shop online. Among the people aged 55-74, 35.8% said they would buy more online.
2. How can cross-border e-commerce survive?
19 years ago, SARS made Alibaba today. 19 years later, the global epidemic has had a huge impact on the foreign trade industry. Many enterprises are unable to bear the weight, but some are "moving forward with the weight", turning danger into opportunity. As far as traditional foreign trade enterprises are concerned, they still have unique advantages despite the many tests they face.
The supply chains of many foreign manufacturers are facing a fracture crisis, the supply and demand ends are weak, and the supply chains and industrial chains of many industries are in a state of broken chain disorder. However, our enterprises have a complete industrial chain and are relatively less affected by the epidemic. We might as well seize this opportunity to provide rigid and scarce products for other countries to meet the needs of consumers under the epidemic.
In addition, the obstruction of the export mode of traditional foreign trade does not mean that the consumer demand in overseas markets will disappear. These demands will further erupt on cross-border e-commerce platforms. Foreign trade enterprises can also participate in the field of cross-border e-commerce and make a transformation from b-end to C-end. This is not only a change in survival, but also the general trend.
In 2012, China's cross-border e-commerce transactions, including B2B and B2C, accounted for less than 10% of the total foreign trade. Last year, cross-border e-commerce transactions accounted for 1 / 4 of the whole foreign trade industry. It is estimated that in 2022, China's cross-border e-commerce will account for more than 40% of the total foreign trade.
At the same time, policy dividends have also promoted the development of cross-border e-commerce. On the basis of the 59 cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones established by the State Council, 46 new comprehensive pilot zones have been established. The General Administration of Customs has carried out pilot projects of cross-border e-commerce (B2B) export supervision in 10 local customs offices such as Beijing and Tianjin.
On September 1, Shanghai Customs officially launched the pilot work of "cross-border e-commerce B2B export", marking the opening of a new journey of cross-border e-commerce trade of large-scale "selling the world" at Shanghai port. At the same time, 12 cross-border e-commerce B2B export supervision pilots have been added.
As far as cross-border e-commerce sellers are concerned, in extraordinary times, they should make more efforts in selecting products, pay attention to the sales volume of each product and the feedback given by buyers, and quickly adjust the product structure. Lao Chen's company is mainly engaged in many categories such as beauty and outdoor products. It is reasonable that after the outbreak of the epidemic, people are isolated at home. They don't need outdoor products at all, and they rarely make up. The shops have little hope. However, when God closes a door for you, a new window will be opened, and the sales of disposable gloves for hair dyeing have soared.
In the subsequent selection and replenishment, he increased the layout of epidemic prevention products to offset the decline in sales of other categories. Epidemic prevention products are a good deal. As long as we use divergent thinking to tap the potential of various products, we will find more "good deals". For example, as people spend more and more time in isolation at home, they always need to do some games or sports to exercise their muscles and bones. Indoor fitness equipment such as yoga mat, rope skipping and golf hitting net have become "potential stocks".
At present, offline parties and parties are still dangerous, so products such as women's dresses can be abandoned temporarily. According to the news of major clothing giants or layoffs or store closures, people will not spend spare money to buy more new clothes for themselves for the time being, and there is no need to spend more time on clothing products.
For the second half of the year with only a few left, it is not only a turning point for foreign trade enterprises to "turn over the salted fish", but also a great opportunity for cross-border e-commerce to rise. If you live, you will have a bright future. There is no real despair in the world. As long as we seize the opportunity, what we lost in the first half of the year can be brought back in the second half of the year!
3. Mask exit, or will erupt again
Among the many commodity categories of cross-border e-commerce, epidemic prevention materials are undoubtedly the most popular winner. Since the beginning of the year, the export business of masks, gloves and protective clothing has been booming. Even in the next few months, there is an opportunity for a big outbreak.
Since June, the second round of outbreak has occurred in the United States. As of September 2, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States has exceeded 6.1 million, and the death toll has exceeded 180000. Some health officials believe that considering the limitations of testing and that up to 40% of all infected people are asymptomatic, the actual number of infections may be 10 times that.
It is impossible to hope that the weather will warm and the virus will disappear naturally; It is estimated that it will take time for the successful development of vaccines and mass immunization; With the advent of winter, it is likely to usher in a more severe epidemic peak.
With the arrival of the US school season, the new crown soon brought trump a threat. According to statistics released by CNN, colleges and universities in at least 36 states in the United States reported that more than 20000 students and faculty members were infected with the new crown.
Anthony Fauci of "Zhong Nanshan" in the United States has repeatedly stressed that if the United States can uniformly implement the epidemic prevention measures of wearing masks and maintaining social distance, it will be the most effective way to control the spread of the epidemic. Today, even trump, who has been reluctant to wear masks, has publicly worn masks, called on people to wear masks, and even sold masks on election websites, claiming that nothing is more patriotic than wearing "trump masks"!
From refusing to wear a mask to believing that it is necessary to wear a mask, Trump's "face change" points to the same goal: the presidential election on November 3. In the next two months, large-scale presidential election rallies will be held frequently all over the United States, and tens of thousands of people will gather. If they don't wear masks, once there is a mass infection, it will inevitably become the handle of the opponent's attack.
Recently, Americans have become visibly cautious about the rally. On the evening of August 21, New Yorkers launched a "March for the dead" to protest the US federal government's ineffective response to the epidemic, and none of them did not wear masks.
However, due to the relatively limited production capacity of masks in the United States, when Americans wear masks, the sudden supply gap can only be filled by importing from overseas, and with the second outbreak of the epidemic and the approach of the year-end election, this gap will only become larger and larger.
Earlier, California governor Gavin Newson announced at a news conference that he would renew a contract with China BYD to order an additional 420 million masks on the basis of the 500 million masks already ordered, of which 120 million were N95 masks and the remaining 300 million were medical surgical masks. Before the vaccine comes out, this may be the last bucket of gold for epidemic prevention materials.
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