The false prosperity that real estate has brought to the country can easily blind people's eyes, and only when the pomp and glamour dissipate can they see the truth. In the past few years, China has sold about 17 million houses every year, but the number of new born last year was only a little more than 10 million. After marriage, the two lived in one house, and the demand was only 5 million. This kind of abnormal supply and demand relationship Obviously it can't last. One day, housing sales will plummet, leading to thunderstorms for a large number of real estate companies, and a large number of bank failures, leaving depositors unable to withdraw their deposits. Then the central bank rescues the resulting social crisis and hyperinflation. So, as soon as you start blowing a real estate bubble, it must end up being a debt crisis.
Now, Evergrande and other real estate companies are constantly experiencing thunderstorms. Every thunderstorm will generate huge bad debts in the banking system. In addition, bank managers are keen on corruption and bribery, and a large number of loans will become bad debts. When bad debts accumulate to a certain extent, Banks lose their ability to cash in savings, and depositors cannot withdraw their deposits.When a large number of banks are unable to pay their deposits and are on the verge of a social crisis, the central bank can only bail out by printing money, and hyperinflation breaks out.
China's economy seems to have many problems, but the essence is only one: after the long-term promotion of the real estate bubble, the debt ratio of the household sector is too high, and the demand is shrinking, and the government's long-term enthusiasm for promoting infrastructure has also led to debt-ridden and lost demand. When the demand in the economy begins Debt, fiscal, banking crises start to break out when shrinking. In the end, it was the RMB crisis. After the burst of Japan's real estate bubble, the lost 30 years appeared. China's future is definitely not as good as Japan's. It stems from the fact that Japan has entered the high-end of the global industrial chain when the real estate bubble burst and globalization is accelerating, while China only stays at the low-end and begins to decouple from the global industrial chain.
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